Umm, I don't know. Alphonse is better than Ed in pure hth (hand-to-hand)/non-alchemy (with weapons, not just fists) combat (in this case, Ed with his weapons vs Al with fists), but Ed's overall combat prowess (when adding Alchemy) is superior, I'd say.
I think that non-alchemy combat is more important for this fight than alchemy, so it would seem Al would have the advantage over Ed at first, but the opponent is using a sword, which I would say puts Al (hth) in a disadvantage, since their skill level is around the same (sword > hth, when on the same skill level.).
So no idea. I think it'd be a pretty close fight regardless of who wins.